Market Insights: Preparing for the 2026 Green Energy Landscape

From "Annual" to "Hourly": Winning the Global Carbon Data War

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If the last decade of corporate decarbonization was defined by volume, the era starting in 2026 will be defined by precision.

At the recent 2026 Decarbonization Action Forum, held on 14 January 2026 in Taipei, hosted by Mt. Stonegate in collaboration with BCSD Taiwan and TEPCO - Tokyo Electricity Power Company, experts from Taiwan and Japan agreed on a critical new reality that the old model of buying renewable energy on an annual basis is no longer enough. We are moving to a system based on "hourly" data which will directly impact pricing power and supply chain survival globally.

The Shift to Precision: From Annual Offsets to Hourly Matching

For years, companies claimed "100% Renewable Energy" (RE100) by offsetting their total annual electricity use with Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs). However, Dr. Kae Takase, Senior Manager of the Renewable Energy Institute (Japan) noted that upcoming changes to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance signal the end of this era as the industry is moving toward hourly matching. This shift means:

• More Data: New regulations, expected by 2027 and active by 2030, will require electricity emission factors to be precise to each hour. This increases data requirement by 8,760 times.

• Risk: Without precise hourly data, companies may be forced to use default "residual mix" emission factors (often coal-heavy) instead of average grid factors.

• Financial Impact: For exporters, this could artificially increase reported carbon footprints, leading to higher costs under carbon tariffs like CBAM without any actual change in operations.

Rose Liao, Senior Manager at Mt. Stonegate, warns that current buying strategies often lack the additionality and time-based precision needed for these new rules. As a result, the new competitive edge will lie in verifying the link between physical electricity delivery and certificates, with 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) resources emerging as scarce, premium assets. In this context, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) must evolve beyond simple price-hedging instruments to become critical tools for data compliance and carbon tax or fee reduction.

Regional Strategies: Turning Volatility into Value

As hourly matching reshapes power markets, companies must adapt their strategies to regional market and policy conditions.

1. Japan: Using Volatility to your Advantage Dr. Masanobu Sasaki from TEPCO outlined Japan’s Green Transformation (GX) strategy. TEPCO is actively using energy storage and Demand Response (DR) to benefit from price changes.

   
   

   The Opportunity: Load Shifting. By moving production schedules to times when renewable energy is abundant, manufacturers can cut energy costs and secure low-carbon power at the same time.
   

2. Southeast Asia: Managing Market Changes

   In key hubs like Vietnam and Thailand, the market is opening fast. Vivian Chuang, Project Manager at Mt. Stonegate, noted that policies like Vietnam’s DPPA and Thailand’s UGT are breaking old monopolies.

   
   

   The Strategy: Stay flexible. While market rules mature, companies should use RECs as a flexible buffer while exploring physical assets (like onsite solar) to protect against policy changes.

From Follower to Influencer: Shaping the Rules

In an environment where sustainability standards are still evolving, taking a passive, wait-and-see approach is increasingly risky. Early engagement is becoming essential for companies that aim to move from being rule followers to rule shapers.

Figure 1: (From Left to Right) Dr. Jules (Mt. Stonegate), Tony Mo (BCSD Taiwan), Dr. Takase (REI), and Dr Sasaki (TEPCO) during the seminar's closing discussion on electricity procurement.

Tony Mo, General Secretary of BCSD Taiwan and Professor Hsing-Lung Lien from National University of Kaohsiung, appealed that Taiwanese companies must stop being "Rule Followers" and become "Rule Shapers."

With experts like Dr. Kae Takase, Senior Manager of Renewable Energy Institute (Japan) and Dr. Jules Chuang, Managing Director of Mt. Stonegate serving on the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Technical Working Group, there is a unique chance to be heard. Dr. Jules has been a key driver in actively bringing Taiwan's perspective to international discussions. We strongly encourage companies to give feedback during public consultations to ensure supply chain realities are considered.

The Road to 2026: Data is the New Competitive Edge

By 2026, success will no longer come from simply buying green power, but from going beyond procurement by managing energy data. In this high-pressure environment, the winners will be those who can track the time and location of every kilowatt-hour and smartly utilize market renewable energy tools. By treating carbon data transparency as a core skill, companies can turn compliance pressure into a strong competitive advantage.

Mt. Stonegate provides expert advice on international standards and green energy procurement. From securing scarce PPA assets to navigating complex Southeast Asian markets, we deliver one-stop solutions to ensure your decarbonization path is compliant, cost-effective, and competitive.